Research & validation
Does the Pressure Index measure real pressure?
Observed outcomes on pressure balls vs all other balls; our definition against common rules of thumb.
1.43
Pressure Index · close finishes
0.90
Pressure Index · one-sided
25.1%
Balls flagged as pressure
50,495
Pressure balls
✓Validation: pressure balls vs other balls
| Definition | Share of balls | Dismissal % · pressure | Dismissal % · other | SR · pressure | SR · other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death overs (16-20) | 21.8% | 8.58% | 4.79% | 161.8 | 135.6 |
| Chase RRR >= 10 | 21.2% | 6.94% | 5.26% | 147.5 | 139.6 |
| Leverage only, top 25% | 25.0% | 5.62% | 5.62% | 139.5 | 141.9 |
| Pressure Index (ours) | 25.0% | 5.82% | 5.55% | 137.7 | 142.5 |
☰Method in six steps
- 1 · Clean
200,999 deliveries from IPL 2022–26, T20Is and two other T20 events. Wides/byes/leg-byes carry no run value in the source, so one run is added per extra event; legal balls are recounted. - 2 · Win probability
Separate ML models for the first innings and the chase predict P(batting side wins | state). Seven algorithms were compared with 5-fold GroupKFold by match; XGBoost defines the main Pressure Index. - 3 · Pressure Index
Leverage (expected |win-probability swing| on the next ball) × Difficulty (wickets lost above par, asking rate above par) × Stage (knockout ×1.15). The top 25% of legal balls are pressure balls. - 4 · Performance
Run value above the average player in the same context (innings, over, wickets, pace/spin, league, batter hand), win probability added (WPA), uplift versus the player's own normal level, and consistency across pressure innings. - 5 · Fair comparison
Opposition strength via team Elo, empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward the player's own overall level, minimum 120 pressure balls and 10 pressure innings. - 6 · Reliability
500 match-bootstrap resamples per pressure definition; the final rank averages P(top 10) across Lookup, Logistic Regression and XGBoost definitions.
!Limitations (read these)
- ●Pressure performance is a weaker, noisier signal than overall skill, especially for bowlers (split-half reliability is low).
- ●Extras runs are not recorded in the source, so targets are approximate (about ±2 runs in most matches).
- ●Fielding, venue, pitch, toss and team strength inside the win-probability model are not modelled.
- ●Players with fewer than ~200 pressure balls have wide rank intervals even when their numbers are the best in the data.
- ●Only 131 of 254 players have a free-licensed photo; the rest show a silhouette. Height is available for 5 players.
©Photo credits · free-licensed images from Wikimedia Commons (attribution required)
131 photos
| Player | Licence | Attribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Samad | CC BY 3.0 | SunrisersIPL, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Abrar Ahmed | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Nazly Ahmed, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Adam Zampa | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Adil Rashid | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Aiden Markram | CC BY 3.0 | Michael Sherman, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ajinkya Rahane | CC BY 3.0 | Bollywood Hungama, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Andre Russell | CC BY 3.0 | Kolkata Knight Riders - Official, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Andrew Balbirnie | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Arshdeep Singh | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Axar Patel | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Babar Azam | CC BY 3.0 | ICNA, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Benjamin Sears | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Bhuvneshwar Kumar | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Akshayparmar.gu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Cameron Green | CC BY-SA 4.0 | WikiWanderer261, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Chris Jordan | CC BY 2.0 | Number 10, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| David Miller | CC BY 4.0 | Michael Sherman, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| David Warner | CC BY-SA 2.0 | NAPARAZZI, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Deepak Chahar | CC BY 3.0 | G. D. GOENKA SCHOOL, AGRA, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Dinesh Karthik | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Anand Anil, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Faf du Plessis | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Fakhar Zaman | CC BY 3.0 | Pakistan Cricket Board, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| FazalHaq Farooqi | CC BY 3.0 | Afghanistan Cricket Board Official, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| George Dockrell | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Gerald Coetzee | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Glenn Maxwell | CC0 | Storm machine, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Hardik Pandya | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Haris Rauf | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Harry Brook | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Harry Tector | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Hasan Mahmud | Public domain | Press Information Department, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ibrahim Zadran | CC BY 3.0 | Afghanistan Cricket Board, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ish Sodhi | CC BY 2.0 | www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ishan Kishan | CC BY 3.0 | Tata Ipl 2022, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ishant Sharma | CC BY-SA 3.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jacob Duffy | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jaker Ali Anik | Public domain | Press Information Department, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jamie Overton | CC BY-SA 3.0 | Harrias, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jason Behrendorff | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jason Holder | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jasprit Bumrah | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jaydev Unadkat | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jofra Archer | CC BY 3.0 | BBC News اردو, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jonny Bairstow | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Jos Buttler | CC BY 2.0 | Number 10, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Josh Hazlewood | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Josh Inglis | CC BY 3.0 | Prime Video AU & NZ, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Kagiso Rabada | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Kane Williamson | CC BY-SA 2.0 | Mark Lockett, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Keshav Maharaj | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Khaleel Ahmed | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Krunal Pandya | CC BY 3.0 | Bollywood Hungama, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Kuldeep Yadav | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Kyle Jamieson | CC BY 3.0 nz | Photographer - David Hollander, CC BY 3.0 nz, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Kyle Mayers | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Calistemon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Liton Das | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Lockie Ferguson | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Lokesh Rahul | CC BY 3.0 | Bollywood Hungama, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Lungi Ngidi | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mahendra Singh Dhoni | CC BY 3.0 | RIGI, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Marco Jansen | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Marcus Stoinis | CC BY 2.0 | www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Matt Henry | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Blue Square Thing, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Matthew Wade | CC BY-SA 2.0 | paddynapper, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mayank Agarwal | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mitchell Marsh | CC BY 2.0 | www.davidmolloyphotography.com, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mitchell Starc | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Moeen Ali | CC BY 2.0 | www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mohammad Nabi | CC BY-SA 3.0 | K Popal, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mohammad Rishad Hossain | Public domain | Press Information Department, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mohammad Rizwan | CC BY 3.0 | ICNA, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mohammed Shami | GODL-India | President's Secretariat, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mohammed Siraj | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mujeeb Ur Rahman | CC BY 3.0 | Afghanistan Cricket Board, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mukesh Kumar | CC0 | Devrath Magahiya, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Mustafizur Rahman | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Namboori Tilak Varma | CC BY 4.0 | Buchi Babu Sana, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Naseem Shah | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Nazly Ahmed, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Nasum Ahmed | CC BY 3.0 | Cricfrenzy Tube, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Nazmul Hossain Shanto | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Rocky Masum, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Nitish Reddy | CC0 | WikiWanderer261, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Patrick Cummins | CC BY-SA 4.0 | EGilham, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Paul Stirling | CC BY-SA 3.0 | Harrias, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Phil Salt | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Prithvi Shaw | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Quinton de Kock | CC BY-SA 2.0 | NAPARAZZI, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Rachin Ravindra | CC BY-SA 4.0 | JaumeBG, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Rashid Khan | CC BY 3.0 | Afghanistan Cricket Board, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Rasikh Salam | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Wani Moomin, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ravichandran Ashwin | GODL-India | Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ravindra Jadeja | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Reece Topley | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Kyle Andrews, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Reeza Hendricks | CC BY-SA 2.0 | NAPARAZZI, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Rishabh Pant | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Rohit Sharma | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Roston Chase | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Calistemon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ruturaj Gaikwad | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Ryan Rickelton | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Sam Curran | CC BY 2.0 | Number 10, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Sanju Samson | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Sean Abbott | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Joeyjackets, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shadab Khan | CC BY 3.0 | Pakistan Cricket, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shaheen Afridi | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Nazly Ahmed, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shai Hope | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shikhar Dhawan | CC BY-SA 2.0 | NAPARAZZI, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shimron Hetmyer | CC BY 3.0 | CRICKETNEXT, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shivam Dube | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shoriful Islam | Public domain | Press Information Department, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shreyas Iyer | CC BY 3.0 | 247 Entertainment, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Shubman Gill | CC BY 3.0 | Bollywood Hungama, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Sikandar Raza | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Storm machine, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Suryakumar Yadav | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Suyash Sharma | CC BY 3.0 | Kolkata Knight Riders, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| T Natarajan | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Taskin Ahmed | Public domain | Press Information Department, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Tim Southee | CC0 | Government House, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Towhid Hridoy | CC BY 4.0 | Niriho khoka, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Travis Head | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Calistemon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Trent Boult | CC BY 2.0 | www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Tushar Deshpande | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Umesh Yadav | CC BY-SA 3.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Umran Malik | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Gorav Sharma, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Venkatesh Iyer | CC BY 3.0 | Kolkata Knight Riders, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Vijay Shankar | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Virat Kohli | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Wanindu Hasaranga | CC BY-SA 4.0 | 04 ATM 04, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Washington Sundar | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Dee03, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| William Jacks | Public domain | Dave Morton, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Wriddhiman Saha | CC BY-SA 3.0 | Harrias, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Yashasvi Jaiswal | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |
| Yuzvendra Chahal | GODL-India | Prime Minister's Office, GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons | File page |